Climate & Future Generations · Episode 1 · 22-min read

The strangers you're sacrificing for

Transcript · audio coming

Consider the small adjustments you make with the future in mind. You turn the thermostat down — not because you are cold, but as a small cost you pay to feel you have done the right thing, a habit by now. You took the train last month when the flight was cheaper and three hours quicker, and you told yourself it was for the scenery, and it was not really for the scenery. And when you vote, part of your reason is for them — the ones who come after, who will inherit whatever we leave behind.

And there is a sentence that begins whenever you do one of these things, which you never quite finish. It begins: I am doing this for —. And then it reaches for the people at the far end of it, and closes on nothing, because you do not actually know who they are. Not because you have not met them yet. You cannot meet them. They are not elsewhere; they are not late; they are not yet born. You are turning the heat down, in a cold house, for the sake of people who do not exist.

So the thought gets dropped. Every time, a moment before the sentence ends, you let it go and think about something else. Almost everyone does; it is one of the most practised evasions there are. Today we are not going to drop it.

This is Philosophy for Us — philosophy for everyone, no degree required.

This is the first of nine episodes, and the whole series rests on a question you might have thought was settled: what, if anything, do we owe the future — and whether the people we mean to pay are even there to receive it.

Let me begin with something odd. Almost the entire dispute — pay now, sacrifice now, change how you live now — runs on a single claim that no one on any side actually argues about: that of course we owe the people coming after a world worth living in. That is the shared starting point. Everyone accepts it; they disagree only about how much and how fast. Over these nine episodes I want to do the one thing almost never done with a shared starting point: examine it. I am not going to tell you that you owe the future everything, nor that you owe it nothing. Both of those are slogans, and I will show you today why they are slogans. I want to do something slower: to take the conviction you arrived with — that we owe them — and clear away the ready-made phrases that have been doing the arguing in its place, until we can see the genuinely strange thing those phrases were covering. I am not standing outside this, by the way. I turn the thermostat down too. So today does one job, and the next eight depend on it: it opens a question you have been keeping out of mind, and shows what is actually behind it.

Consider how deep this conviction runs, because it is easy to underrate. You may think of "we should do something about climate" as one opinion among others — a position you hold that someone else might reasonably reject. But the core of it is not like that. The core of it is a premise almost everyone shares.

Look at what the loudest dispute is actually about. One side says we must act now — change how we live, pay more, fly less, rebuild — and act fast. The other side resists: not so fast, not so much, not at that cost, not while other countries keep burning coal. They appear to be opposites. On the point that matters here, they are not. The person who resists is not saying the future can be abandoned. Ask him directly — do we owe the people coming after us nothing? would you hand them a wrecked planet and call the account settled? — and he recoils. He does not believe that. He will tell you he has grandchildren, and that he wants them to inherit something good. What he is disputing is the cost — how much, how soon, who pays first. He stands on the same premise as the activist blocking the road. Both are certain that the people who come after are owed a livable world. That is not what the argument is about. It is the ground the argument stands on.

And you feel it too, in a way that does not feel like an opinion at all. It feels more like a fact about the sort of person you would have to be to deny it. Imagine saying it aloud: I do not care what kind of world they get. Let it burn. It is not my problem; I will be gone. You cannot quite say it with a straight face. Something in you refuses it before any reasoning arrives. That refusal is what I mean by the shared premise. It sits lower than any argument you could give for it.

Notice the shape of the conviction, because the shape will matter for the whole series. When you feel that we owe the future a livable world, the wrong you are feeling has a definite structure. It is wrong, you feel, because of what it does to them. There is an injured party — the people who will live in the world we leave. And there is the party doing the injuring — us, now, with our flights, our coal, our convenience. We act; they bear the result. That is the picture: a harm, a victim, and a responsible party, stretched across time. We are responsible. The grandchildren are the victims. The wrong is the harm that runs from us to them.

Let me be fair to how sound this is as moral reasoning, because it is sound. It is not sentimentality. It follows the way we think about every other wrong. Why is it wrong to pour poison into a river? Because someone downstream drinks it. The wrong lies in the harm to the person at the other end. Climate simply extends the river through time rather than space — the people downstream are downstream in years — but the logic is the same, which is why it feels so secure. We are not making a special exception for the future. We are applying the most ordinary moral rule we have: do not wreck what other people need in order to live. The future is just other people, standing a little further along.

So here is the conviction, stated plainly — and hold it at full weight, because we will spend nine episodes finding out whether it can bear that weight. Of course we owe the future a livable world. It is the one thing in this whole matter that seems genuinely obvious. We are handing our grandchildren a damaged planet, and that is wrong because of what it does to them. The only real question is how much to give up, and how fast. That is the premise — or what feels, from the inside, exactly like the premise. Notice how far down it goes before you have given a single reason for it.

Then notice one thing that does not fit. If it is that obvious — if no one really argues about it — why does it need so much help? Why is it wrapped, everywhere, in slogans? We do not put slogans around the things that are genuinely obvious. No one carries a sign reminding us that pain is bad. But this conviction arrives ready-made in phrases, three or four of them, and we reach for them the moment anyone pushes back. That is what to examine first. Not whether the conviction is true — whether the phrases we defend it with are actually defending it, or merely doing our arguing for us so we need not.

Three of them. You know all three. Each one, said aloud, lands like a closing statement — the thing you say when you take yourself to have won. I want to show that not one of them is actually an argument. They are slogans, and the purpose of a slogan is to make the case feel closed so that you stop examining it.

The first. We are stealing from our grandchildren. That is the heavy one, the one that makes people go quiet. Consider what it does. Steal. Theft is one of the most precise moral words we have. For theft there must be a thing and an owner — someone who had it, to whom it belonged, and who now does not have it because you took it. Theft runs from a thief to a victim who is, specifically, worse off than before: they had the bicycle, now they do not. So when you say we are stealing from our grandchildren, you have quietly assumed the very thing you were meant to prove. You have assumed there is a them who own the future, who have it now, and who will be left without the good world that should have been theirs. Perhaps that is right. But the slogan does not show it; it simply helps itself to it and hands you the verdict already made. It feels like the strongest thing you could say. It is the place where all the hard questions are hidden, made to look like the answer.

The second. Leave it better than you found it. The campsite rule — decent, the sort of thing a good person says. It runs on a picture so clean you do not notice it is a picture. The campsite rule works because there is a next camper. You leave the site; someone arrives; they find it as you left it, tidy or spoiled. One site, a succession of campers, each handing the same ground to the next. That is the image beneath the phrase: the world as a single campsite, the generations as campers passing through, each arriving to find what the last one left. Keep that image in mind, because we will return to it today, and I will show that it is not merely sentimental but mistaken — mistaken about who actually arrives at the campsite. For now, notice only that the phrase brings the picture in for free. It tells you to leave things better for the people who come, and it has already decided, without saying so, who those people are and that they were going to come regardless of what you did.

The third, and the plainest. There is no planet B. True. There is indeed no second Earth. And it tells you nothing whatever about what you owe, or to whom. It is a fact about real estate presented as if it were a moral conclusion. "There is no spare planet" has the same logical form as "there is no spare kidney": it tells you the stakes are high and the thing irreplaceable, and then it stops, and leaves you to supply and therefore I must sacrifice for the unborn, as though that followed. It does not. The slogan brings you right up to the actual question and then treats it as already answered.

So here is the first thing to see clearly. Each of those three is built to end the conversation. Stealing ends it by assuming the victim. Leave it better ends it by assuming the next camper. No planet B ends it by changing the subject to the size of the stakes. None of them does the work. Each stands in for an argument it does not actually make.

Ask where they come from — these ready-made phrases that save us the trouble of thinking. There is a politics behind them. One side badly wants you to pay — to vote a certain way, fund a certain thing, accept a certain cost — and an unexamined premise is the most useful thing that side has, because if we owe the future is treated as beyond question, then every bill presented in its name goes through unchallenged. The other side wants you not to pay, and has its own comforting stories: someone later will deal with it, the models are unreliable, it is another country's problem. Both sides are in the business of handing you a story that lets you stop thinking and feel righteous about it. This is not a conspiracy. It is simply what happens to a question this large, this expensive, and this distant: it accumulates many such stories, whose real function is to let the people now alive off the hook, in whichever direction they have already chosen to go. The comforts are not innocent. They do work.

I am going to set all of that aside — not because it does not matter. It matters enormously, and it is a different subject. The politics concerns who is trying to move you and why. I am after what lies underneath it: the case that would still stand if no one were trying to sell you anything — no campaign, no donor, no vote next week, only you and the cold house and the unfinished sentence. Strip away the slogans. Strip away the politics. What is left of we owe the future? What is the bare claim, once you remove every phrase that was doing the arguing for you?

That is what remains, and let me show it to you. I should warn you: it is stranger than the slogans ever let it appear.

Here is the bare claim, with the slogans removed. You believe you owe something to a particular group of people. Very well: who are they? The moment you look closely at the group you are sacrificing for, you find it is unlike any group you have ever owed anything to. In three ways. Let me take them in turn.

The first you already half-know, because it is the point at which the sentence never reaches its end. They do not exist. Not "they are far away," not "they are hard to picture." They are nowhere, because they are not yet. Some of the grandchildren you are flying less for have no parents yet. The ones further out — the people a serious climate policy is built around, generations downstream — there is at present no fact of the matter about any single one of them. No names, no faces, not even a number: we do not know how many there will be, or whether there will be any. You are in a moral relationship, a serious one, one you would reorganise your life around, with a party that has no members. Every other duty you carry, you carry toward someone who is here — your child, your neighbour, the stranger whose wallet you would return, even the stranger on the far side of the planet you will never visit. All of them are real now; you could, in principle, stand in a room with any of them. This is the only obligation you have where, at this moment, there is no one on the other end to have it toward.

The second. You will never meet them. Not "probably will not" — it is impossible, for all the ones who matter most to the argument. The far future is the part of the future you will be most thoroughly dead for. Consider what that removes. For every other person you owe something, there is at least the possibility of meeting them — you might see their face, hear what they make of you, be told to your face what you did, or be thanked for it. That possibility, even when it never comes about, does quiet work in every duty you have; it is part of what makes the other person real to you as someone you can wrong. Here that possibility is ruled out from the start. You are acting toward people whose faces are not merely unknown but unknowable, who will arrive in a world you have already left, and whom you could not meet if you gave everything you have. The relationship runs in one direction only.

And the third, which is the one that should genuinely stop you, because it is so complete. They can give nothing back. They cannot reciprocate. They cannot thank you, blame you, pay you, sue you, forgive you, resent you, or even know your name. Every other moral relationship you have runs both ways, at least a little, at least in principle — that is nearly what makes it a relationship. You help a friend, and the friendship runs in both directions over time. You wrong a stranger, and the stranger can come after you, and the fact that they can is part of what keeps you in check. Even your duty to an infant, who can do nothing back now — the infant grows up, and looks at you, and the whole point is that one day there is a person there who can hold you to account. With the far future there is no such day, ever. You act, and the people you act for receive it, or do not, in silence, and the silence is permanent; there is no version of events in which it becomes a face across a table. It is the most one-sided relationship there could be. You hold all the power and they hold none — not because they are weak, but because they are not there to hold any.

Now, I want to be careful, because there is a cheap move here, and I am not going to make it. The cheap move is to look at all this — they do not exist, you will never meet them, nothing comes back — and conclude: well then, plainly, you can owe nothing to people like that; the matter is closed. That is a slogan too, merely a colder one, and just as lazy as the warm ones. Notice that it does not follow. "I will never meet you, and you can do nothing back to me" plainly does not, by itself, mean "I may do whatever I like to you." If it did, the perfect crime would be the one committed against someone who can never find out — and you do not believe that; you believe close to the reverse. So I am not offering you that exit. We will come back to it later in the series and give it the serious form it genuinely has, because there is one. Today I only want the strangeness plainly on the table. The people you are so sure you owe a livable world are not like anyone you have ever owed anything. They do not exist. You will never meet them. They cannot answer. And you were prepared to rebuild your life around them.

That is strange enough. But it is not the strangest thing. There is one more, and it is the one the sentence is really avoiding when it stops halfway. The first three concern who these people are not — not here, not meetable, not able to answer. The last concerns something stranger: whether the "them" you are picturing was ever a fixed group at all. Let me show you the thing you have been leaving unfinished.

Picture the two roads — it is an ordinary thing to picture, and you do it every time this comes up. There is the road on which we change course: we sacrifice, we cut, we rebuild, we do the hard and expensive thing everyone says we should. And there is the road on which we do not: we shrug, we carry on, we leave it to later. Two futures, the good one and the damaged one. And the whole moral picture you have been carrying says: in the good future they are better off, in the damaged future they are worse off, and the wrong is the gap between the two — the worse deal we handed them. The same them, two deals.

Now look harder at the two roads, because here is what the picture quietly assumes. Those two futures are not one world with its thermostat nudged up or down. Whole histories run differently in each. On the road where we transform everything, different cities are built, different jobs exist, different industries rise and fall, people move to different places and meet different people. People who meet differently marry differently. Couples who marry differently, on different timelines, in different houses, have different children, conceived on different nights. Run that forward far enough and the population of the saved world and the population of the damaged world are not the same crowd graded better or worse. They could be different people — different names, different faces. A different set of human beings stands in each of those two futures, each of them able to be there at all only because we took the one road and not the other.

So return to the question we began with, the one the sentence never reaches. When you say you are sacrificing for them — for whom, exactly? The crowd you have been picturing, the fixed set of grandchildren waiting in the future to receive the better deal or the worse one — are you sure there is one fixed crowd, the same on both roads, waiting to learn which world it gets? Or does which crowd is even there depend on the very thing you are trying to decide?

Now I am going to do something difficult: stop here. You can feel where this leads, and I am not going to let us go there today, because if we do it quickly we will do it badly, and this is the most important step in the whole series; it deserves a full episode of its own. So I will name exactly what has happened, set it down where you can see it, and leave it.

What has happened is this. The conviction you arrived with had a clean shape — a harm, a victim, a responsible party, strung across time. And we have just cast doubt on whether there is a fixed victim at all: not over whether they would suffer, but over whether the "them" you were picturing is even one steady group you can point to, or something that shifts depending on what you do. I am not going to tell you today what follows from that. I am not going to tell you it is harmless — I do not think it is. And I am not going to tell you it dissolves the whole thing so that we can all go home. Here is what happens when I test it. I put it as hard as I can — you cannot even be sure who stands in that future, or that it is the same who on both roads — and you still cannot say the other sentence. You still cannot say so the future is fair game, let it burn. The feeling does not move. So something here is odd, and I cannot yet tell you what; and I will be honest with you, this one is genuinely unsolved. We are going to earn it slowly. For today, the doubt is in place. Leave it there.

Let me give you one thing to take with you — not a comfort, a test. Take it away from climate, so you can see the shape cleanly. Picture a man planting a tree — an oak, slow-growing, the kind that takes a lifetime to cast real shade, shade he will be long dead before it throws. He plants it, and someone asks him why, and he gives the old answer: for those who come after, so that someone can sit under it. It is a fine thing to do; it may be one of the better things a person can do. Now apply to it what we applied today — gently; you need not break it. Notice two things. First, "for those who come after" did his arguing for him, exactly as stealing and no planet B did yours: it named a someone and a debt and let him stop there, without asking who. Second, and stranger: who is the someone? Not anyone he will meet — he will be decades in the ground. Not anyone who can thank him or ever know his name. And — this is the part we are keeping for later — perhaps not even a fixed someone at all, but whoever happens to be there in the world his small choice helped to shape. So whom did he plant it for? He would swear he knows. Try to finish his sentence for him, and feel it close on the same nothing yours did. You have just done it yourself, and no one handed you the answer, because there is not one yet. There is only the question, suddenly carrying weight where a warm phrase used to sit.

So here is where we stand, and I am not going to tidy it. You came in able to say exactly what you owed and to whom — a livable world, to the people who will have to live in it. And the conviction is still standing. Notice that. We pulled the slogans off it, we showed that the people at the other end are strangers unlike any you have ever owed anything, and we put a question mark over its one vulnerable point — and you still cannot say the future is fair game. But the conviction is no longer secure, and you cannot quite locate where the doubt is getting in. That is not a failure of today's work. That is the question, now open. For eight more episodes we keep it open.

And next time we do the opposite of doubt. We take the most basic and most reasonable idea in all of morality — that a wrong requires someone it is a wrong to, that there is no harm without someone who is harmed — and, instead of questioning your conviction, we build it. We make it rigorous. We turn we would be harming them into the strongest, hardest, most defensible version any serious person has managed. And then, the episode after, we bring back the question we have just set down, and find out together whether that strongest version can carry it. I am not going to tell you today whether it can.

That is where we stop. Thanks for listening. I'll see you next time.

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